Interpretation of China 2030 low carbon commitments: cumulative emissions lower than in Europe and the United States
On the international climate negotiating table, whether it is "praise" or "accusation", "ambition" is the most commonly used vocabulary in various countries. Chinese Premier Li Keqiang announced the emission reduction commitment of China in the upcoming climate conference on June 30. It seems the industry experts, this commitment can afford to be "ambitious" word.
China's submission to the UNFCCC secretariat on the same day described its 2030 action target: carbon dioxide emissions peak around 2030 and strive to reach its peak as soon as possible, and its carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP have dropped by 60% -65% from 2005, . "Some countries are accustomed to using their carbon dioxide emissions in recent years to attack China, but this comparison is not fair," said Zou Ji, deputy director of the Strategic Research and International Cooperation Center of China's National Climate Change Conference, in an interview with reporters. The "instantaneous emissions" of carbon dioxide, the cumulative carbon dioxide emissions is the main factor leading to global warming. Zou Ji said that according to the control target set forth by China this time, by 2030, China's cumulative carbon dioxide emissions since the first industrial revolution in 1750 will still be lower than in Europe and the United States. "If the cumulative emissions in China is 1, the United States is about 1.4, and the EU about 1.2." He stressed that the above comparison shows the emissions of the entire country and "we are lower if per capita." In fact, the comparison of a single cumulative emission also masks some important facts. Climate change researchers are well aware of a curve: as per capita GDP rises, per capita emissions in the country will rise first and then peak and then fall. China is still in the process of industrialization and urbanization compared with the developed countries that have already passed the peak. This is the peak period of carbon emissions on the curve. However, Zou Ji stressed that China is trying to avoid re-entering the old path of Europe and the United States through the innovation of the development mode.
He analyzed that at the peak of carbon emissions in Europe and the United States, its per capita GDP has risen to between 20,000 and 25,000 U.S. dollars. According to the goal set forth by China this time, when the carbon emissions peak, China's per capita GDP may not have reached 15,000 U.S. dollars. "This means that China needs to achieve the modernization of the country with the least greenhouse gas emissions and achieve people's safety. Wealth, dignity and happiness. " In addition to the horizontal comparison of cumulative emissions and development trends, the vertical comparison of a country's emission reduction efforts is also an important dimension for identifying "ambitions." Both Europe and the United States have already submitted their contribution plans so far. Zou Ji said the new U.S. plan has slightly accelerated compared with the previous emission reduction efforts, but it is not as obvious as China's.
He Jiankun, deputy director of China's National Climate Change Expert Committee, also emphasized to reporters the escalation of China's emission reduction efforts. In Copenhagen, he said, China's goal is to reduce carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP by 40% to 45% by 2020. Much effort has been put into the realization of this goal. To meet the 2030 target means that the annual decline in carbon emissions per unit of GDP needs to be faster, which means that China will make greater efforts. As an important measure to reduce carbon emissions, China has clearly proposed to promote hydropower development, develop nuclear power safely and efficiently, vigorously develop wind power, accelerate the development of solar power generation and actively develop geothermal energy, biomass energy and ocean energy. He Jiankun said that according to rough estimates, the demand for funds for new energy sources alone will exceed 10 trillion yuan by 2030. If combined with other measures such as energy saving and forest carbon sequestration, the total capital needs will probably be about About 40 trillion. However, He Jiankun stressed that the low-carbon commitment made by China this time also has positive significance for promoting the transformation of the mode of economic development and industrial restructuring. Zou Ji also pointed out that China's commitment takes into account both international factors and domestic needs. He stressed that for China, this ambitious emission reduction plan is not easy and belongs to the barely able to reach. However, since it promised, China will make its own word and make its own contribution to the global response to climate change.
This commitment, but also for the oil industry, pointed out the direction of development. Energy-saving and emission reduction is a general trend. Greener and cleaner energy sources and methods will replace existing energy-intensive and high-emission products. Lubrizol lubricants can be expected in the future after-car market, will be more inclined to high-end, environmentally friendly products, and environmentally friendly energy corresponding to the demand for natural gas engine lubricants will also rise sharply, and become dominant. In line with environmental requirements of SN / GF-5 oil, will also become the mainstream market.